Thursday, February 23, 2006

Fractals, Dow Theory, Nikkei

Pre-opening market levels are slightly lower this morning. Aside from Housing and Gold sectors trying to keep strength (a few stocks are ticking mildly higher) nothing eventful is on the radar.

Another placid day? With VIX sitting right in the middle between overbought and oversold levels it's quite possible.

We're looking for actionable items in NDX-100, Housing, Gold, Semiconductors and of course, Oil.

Looking around for items I came across a website that provides long term charts on pretty much anything. So, I looked at the stock indices and noted three things:
  1. The Dow Theory non-confirmation of DJIA rally is glaringly obvious. With a so far 100% hit rate of such non-confirmation having spelled "bad things" in the past, this is something to keep in mind.
  2. S&P 500 looks like it's forming a massive double top. This is too early to say but fractalists and Elliott Wave practicioners out there are terribly concerned. I have to confess that I am too afflicted by these schools of thought and thus tend to align my views with their camp.
  3. Nikkei 225 looks a lot like Gold before it rallied from 250 levels. We'll do more research on this as I'd like to allocate a portion of Cadence Capital money into Asian markets.
Here is the link: http://www.mrci.com/pdf/stocks.pdf

Cheers,
/Dmitry

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